Strategy as White Water Rafting
Developing a long-term strategy in today’s business environment is very challenging. Especially in the software industry, the environment is changing so rapidly that strategies might become obsolete soon. The only strategy that makes sense is to keep revising your approach in step with the changes happening around you. An external focus is very crucial for this. Business today is more like a war and it is very important to understand what the old way of working was and what the new paradigm is.
Strategic assumptions, management structures, information systems, and training programs geared to a competitive battlefield of the old days no longer hold good. The rules of engagement have changed and Strategic mind-sets also need to change. Today’s business environment is characterized by some common elements[1].
Friction
A force that resists action! A Lot of the things that apparently seems easy to do suddenly become difficult to do and a lot of difficult things appear impossible do to. For example, finding out touch points, events and sale opportunities for a CRM model looks easy but the effort does not move because of inability to decide and take action. Another symptom of friction is the ‘80% complete’ syndrome. Many projects start off ( Namma Metro Construction in Bangalore) ) but they never seemed to get completed or closed after that. Another example could be the writer’s cramp while writing a Whitepaper. Friction is the inability to get started on an initiative or the inability to close something that has been started. The cause may be mental, as in indecision over a course of action or it could be self-induced such as a lack of clearly defined objectives and unclear plans or it could be physical as in lack of resources to get started. Whatever form it takes, friction definitely has a psychological as well as a physical impact.
Uncertainty
Business is always conducted in a ‘fog of war’ — one does not know what the competitor is doing, one does not know which technology option will succeed, one does not know who is helping as a partner and who is exploiting the situation. Actions in business are based on incomplete, inaccurate or even contradictory information. Gartner may predict certain events; Forrester may contradict them. You may have some inside information that throws a different light on the story. What is the truth and what is not is not clear. But decisions still have to be made and made fast. This involves estimation and acceptance of risk. Higher the risk higher the gain or loss and hence an ability to take prudent risks becomes important.
Fluidity
Business environment does not remain stable at all times. Each episode is a temporary result of a unique combination of circumstances requiring an original solution. No episode can be viewed in isolation. Each episode is shaped by previous ones and shapes future events. Success depends on the ability to adapt to change. Mergers and Acquisitions change a lot of the global scenario. New services, new products and new channels appear and we need to adapt fast to such changes. We need to see emerging patterns (e.g. 24/7, self service) and prepare to adapt.
Disorder
Uncertainty, Fluidity and Friction usually are a recipe for disorder. Under pressure situations instructions would be unclear and misunderstandings would happen, communication will fail and mistakes would be commonplace. This is evident in any of our sales closing situations. Wrong prices, inconsistent numbers and information seem to get passed to the customer creating a lot of confusion. An inability to work in teams is displayed when different people give different messages.
White water rafting is a sport that exemplifies the current business scenario and how the rafters have to navigate at extreme speeds without losing control and negotiate rapids and falls without losing balance. White water rafters have to continuously deal with friction (Is the fall safe?), uncertainty (which course to take for a safe landing?), fluidity (Each rapid is unique requiring unique maneuvering skills) and disorder (Each rafter is trying his own stunts).
The White water rafter[2]
Managing in the old economy was like piloting an ocean liner at sea, while managing in the new economy is surely like negotiating the white water rapids of a narrow river in an inflatable raft. Technology is driving the new economy at an enormous rate of knots and producing subsequent turmoil in the business world.
The rate of the river’s flow is the rate of change of technology. When the water is flowing smoothly in the river, rafting is easy. Technology in the days of COBOL was like rafting in a smooth river without much turbulence. The river flowed at a constant speed and frequent changes in course and direction were not required.
Disruptive Change
Waterfalls in the river’s journey are those sudden changes in the business environment that are disruptive such as the appearance of the Internet. Rafters who do not gear up to flowing down the waterfall inevitably flounder. Those rafters that successfully navigate through the waterfall continue on the onward journey. Sometimes a lot of hype is created for certain waterfalls as being disruptive. But when the rafters reach the place, they may not find anything more than a small rapid. Technologies such as WAP have appeared on the scene but have not created much impact. Currently there is a lot of hype on the opportunities that the social marketing may uncover. Only when the rafters reach the point, we will know. But it does help to be prepared.
New Technology
Rapids in the river are like new technology. The rafters need to maneuver through them and sail across. Face book for the enterprise, Mobility, etc are examples of technology that businesses may need to adopt.
Competing Technologies
Forks in the river signify an option to choose. Rafters may need to decide which course to take. Whether to take the Adobe Flash route or the HTML5 route is a choice to make. You may wait and see where other rafters are going or you may analyze and make a decision. It may be possible that certain branches in the river meet up later.
Business Opportunities
The rocks with vegetation or the forests alongside the river are the business opportunities. Rafters may need to stop, check for vegetation or move on to new opportunities. Guerilla teams may go into the dense vegetation and find out if there are business opportunities.
Management has never been easy but we can safely say that it has never been more difficult than it is today. In the ‘piloting an ocean liner’ analogy of the past, a steady course was set and adjusted according to circumstances. Those ‘steady strategies’ employed in managing can no longer be applied in today’s fast changing business environment. The market is far more unpredictable and rapid reactions are required. This calls for constant re-evaluation and adaptability — just like guiding that raft through the rocks and other hazards of a white water run. There are innumerable turns and twists while rafting — you need to swerve away from the rocks and glide over small waterfalls; sometimes you go with the flow and gain momentum while sometimes you need to avoid crashing into rocks. So managers need to be well prepared for this ever increasing unpredictability and constant turmoil, making it extremely difficult to plan ahead and requiring ever-quicker responses.
Competition
You are not the only rafter in the river. There are others competing for business opportunities. Those that cross rapids, understand new technology can get to better vegetation and business opportunities faster than the others. Some rafters may wait till they find out which course to take, prepare for the journey and then start. This is the Attrition style of competition. It means competing with your amassed strengths and superior skills and technology. This has been the dominant business strategy in the past. Large organizations such as IBM would develop solid engineered products and then market them. The traditional waterfall method of SDLC (Software Development Life Cycle) is the Attrition method. Complete requirements, complete the design and then complete the code and then rollout.
Some rafters on the contrary learn on the way with every rapid and turn that they encounter in the river. They may make mistakes and hit some rocks but they have a larger probability of finding greener vegetation. This is the Maneuver style of competing. Microsoft successfully adopted this strategy through its alpha and beta releases of Windows and other products. It did not wait till the complete version of the product was complete and instead learned from its alpha and beta releases and made much more money. The spiral methodology focuses on incremental development — do a little requirements, check, do a little design, check, do a little coding and see if the software is evolving correctly. Maneuvering is an ability to move fast, to reach farther with greater tempo. Speed and concentration of efforts bring momentum. This is a better way to compete because it attacks the competition’s weakness with surprise, secrecy and speed. The key is “time to market”. It is not necessary that the product is complete before release but it should reach the customers earlier than your competitor’s. There is no need to over-engineer products for old world customers to make them very stable and very feature rich. Instead the new world rafters focus on stable, minimal but well-chosen features. Quality of the products is market driven. Engineering is not poured in unless the market accepts.
[Acknowledgements to Michael Diekmann, Member of the board of Allianz AG, a skilled whitewater rafter for introducing me to this wonderful sport; to Col. Abdulla, President of the Board of Commissioners, PT Astek Persero for introducing me to the US Marine Corps doctrine of war and the idea of Guerilla Warfare as a business strategy; Prof. Ramachandran, Professor of Competitive Strategy, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore, who likened my operational style to a juggler and to Juvan Dias and Yogesh Lokhande for polishing this write-up]
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[1] Source: Warfighting — The U.S. Marine Corps Book of Strategy. This is the official doctrine of the U.S Marine Corps but can be put to use by people in all fields, in virtually every endeavor.
[2] These websites have several pictures of whitewater rafting that may help visualize the river, currents, rapids and waterfalls. http://www.safpar.com/photo_pictures/rafting4.htm, http://www.riverpeople.com/ds_pic.htm
Originally published at http://arvindtiwary1.wordpress.com on May 30, 2012.
